Why the program matters
A home of your own is a stake in the future. Yet the path from a working income to ownership has narrowed. Too little housing, rules that restrict modest homes, and more expensive financing have put that stake further out of reach.
Own Your Frontier begins with a practical answer: recoverable assistance that reduces the first mortgage and can help the next household when it is repaid.
The distance between pay and prices
National home prices rose 58.5% from January 2020 to June 2026. Median full-time weekly earnings rose 30.7% between Q1 2020 and Q2 2026. Both are nominal changes; the starting periods differ.
| Measure | Starting observation | Ending observation | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Case-Shiller national home-price index | 212.360 · January 2020 | 336.663 · June 2026 | 58.534% |
| Median full-time weekly earnings | $957 · Q1 2020 | $1,251 · Q2 2026 | 30.721% |
Both series are not seasonally adjusted. Individual earnings are not household income; a national price index does not describe every community or home.
Sources checked September 30, 2026: S&P Case-Shiller via FRED · BLS earnings via FRED. Sources, assumptions and limitations.
How the path narrowed
Policy choices have consequences. Local governments decide where homes can be built, how many a site may hold, and what it takes to get permission. Those choices meet real limits in land, labor, financing and construction capacity.
01 · Too few homes
Freddie Mac estimated a national shortage of 3.7 million homes in Q3 2024. Despite millions of additions to the housing stock, its estimate found little progress against demand. That is a model of housing need, not a count of missing homes today.
02 · Rules that restrict modest homes
Minimum lot sizes, limits on the number of homes, parking rules and uncertain approvals can make smaller, less costly homes harder to supply. A study of neighboring communities found 11% lower single-family density on the more restrictive side of minimum-lot-size boundaries, alongside larger lots and homes.
Gyourko & McCulloch, 2023 boundary study · Federal Reserve, September 2026
03 · A damaged building pipeline
The housing bust pushed experienced workers out of construction. Census research found that more than 60% of displaced construction workers were in other industries or had no observed employment by 2013. Rebuilding skills and capacity takes time. This historical finding is not a current labor-shortage estimate.
04 · Expensive financing
Higher rates raise a new buyer's payment. They also discourage owners with older, cheaper mortgages from selling. FHFA estimated 1.72 million foregone sales from Q2 2022 to Q2 2024 from this lock-in effect. It is an empirical model estimate, not a count of empty homes.
These studies cover different periods and populations. Their effects cannot be added together to assign a percentage of today's prices to each cause. Read the research and its limits.
What that means for the payment
The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 3.62% in January 2020; Freddie Mac reported 7.03% for September 24, 2026. Our example uses a fixed 7% assumption. For a $500,000 home with 20% down, the combined price-and-rate comparison raises principal and interest by 131.4% from the index-equivalent January 2020 home.
Freddie Mac PMMS · Explore the full payment example
| Year | Case-Shiller avg | 30-yr rate avg | Median weekly earnings | P&I share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 90.099 | 6.94% | $523 | 31.2% |
| 1999 | 96.372 | 7.44% | $549 | 33.5% |
| 2000 | 104.777 | 8.05% | $576 | 36.8% |
| 2001 | 113.186 | 6.97% | $596 | 34.5% |
| 2002 | 122.288 | 6.54% | $608 | 35.0% |
| 2003 | 133.741 | 5.83% | $620 | 34.8% |
| 2004 | 150.464 | 5.84% | $638 | 38.1% |
| 2005 | 171.781 | 5.87% | $651 | 42.8% |
| 2006 | 183.481 | 6.41% | $671 | 47.0% |
| 2007 | 179.941 | 6.34% | $695 | 44.1% |
| 2008 | 164.058 | 6.03% | $722 | 37.5% |
| 2009 | 148.551 | 5.04% | $739 | 29.7% |
| 2010 | 144.661 | 4.69% | $747 | 27.5% |
| 2011 | 139.234 | 4.45% | $756 | 25.4% |
| 2012 | 140.977 | 3.66% | $768 | 23.0% |
| 2013 | 154.511 | 3.98% | $776 | 26.0% |
| 2014 | 164.666 | 4.17% | $791 | 27.8% |
| 2015 | 172.146 | 3.85% | $809 | 27.4% |
| 2016 | 180.889 | 3.65% | $832 | 27.3% |
| 2017 | 191.355 | 3.99% | $860 | 29.1% |
| 2018 | 202.426 | 4.54% | $886 | 31.9% |
| 2019 | 209.399 | 3.94% | $917 | 29.7% |
| 2020 | 222.060 | 3.11% | $984 | 26.5% |
| 2021 | 259.960 | 2.96% | $998 | 29.9% |
| 2022 | 298.316 | 5.34% | $1,059 | 43.1% |
| 2023 | 305.733 | 6.81% | $1,117 | 49.0% |
| 2024 | 321.353 | 6.72% | $1,159 | 49.2% |
| 2025 | 328.525 | 6.59% | $1,204 | 47.8% |
| Today (scenario) | 336.663 | 7.00% | $1,251 | 49.1% |
Annual averages, 1998–2025; the separate 2026 endpoint is the selected scenario. The chart holds a national index-equivalent home and 20% down constant as a method. It shows principal and interest as a share of median individual full-time earnings, not a household budget. Taxes, insurance, maintenance and other debts are excluded.
The household's side of the story
Reasons for renting among all renters in the 2024 survey, published in 2025. Respondents could choose multiple answers; these categories overlap. Renting by choice was also common. The figures do not measure demand for our program.
| Reason | Share of renters |
|---|---|
| Cannot afford down payment | 68% |
| Cannot afford monthly mortgage payment | 49% |
| Cannot qualify for mortgage | 42% |
First-time buyers' share
21%
Primary-residence purchases, July 2024–June 2025; median first-time buyer age 40
Homeownership under 35
35.2%
Householders, Q2 2026; 36.4% a year earlier. Margin of error ±0.7 points at 90% confidence.
Our part in the answer
Own Your Frontier's first program puts recoverable capital behind a buyer's first mortgage. A smaller first mortgage can mean a manageable monthly payment. The assistance remains an obligation under the agreement; repayments can make support available to another household.
We must account for the whole cost of staying in the home: taxes, insurance, maintenance, other debts and a cushion for surprises. We must also choose homes carefully and measure whether people remain secure owners. Financial help has to last beyond closing day.
